| Blue Voyage Partners Exit AFM Cinemas |
| 04 November 2007 |
As posted in the TDN (Velios buys AFM’s 51.9 percent shares), it appears AIG Blue Voyage achieves an exit from one of their longtime investments after just re-entering Turkey. I'm a bit short of time as of late, so here are the main points from the article:
Turkish cinema company AFM sold more than 50 percent of its shares to the Velios Ltd., a subsidiary of Russian Alfa Group Consortium Tuesday evening. The estimated price of the shares is to be around $28.5 million, however, the final price will be set after closing.
This led the previous owners of the company, Akdemir family and AIG Blue Voyage Fund L.P., to sell all their shares except for the 10 percent belonging to Ahmet Adnan Akdemir, AFM founder.
A statement made to the Istanbul Stock Exchange (IMKB) said that 51.9 percent of AFM shares (owned by AIG Blue Voyage Fund L.P., Yalçın Selgur, Mehmet Berent Akdemir, M. Sedat Akdemir, Fatma Füsun Akdemir, Ahmet Adnan Akdemir and Yusuf Agah Tansev) were sold to Velios Ltd. for $28.5 million.
AFM's market value
"The market value of the company is around $59 million but for the deal we calculated it to be $55 million. $28.5 million is not the final price, it may change after closing agreements," CEO Akdemir said yesterday.
Ahmet Adnan Akdemir remained a shareholder of the company with 10 percent. "I am also going to remain in his position as the CEO of AFM Sinemacılık for at least two more years," he added.
The deal also included an optional arrangement providing that Ahmet Adnan Akdemir's remaining shares will not be able to purchased within a year but later they will also be open to a sales agreement between two parties.
Alfa Group is a Russian consortium that is operating on many different business areas, including financial services, oil and gas production, technology, retail trade, telecommunications and media. The consortium is known in Turkey for its investment on Turkish GSM operator Turkcell. As of April 2007, the group together with its telecommunications subsidiary Altimo holds 27 percent of Turkcell shares.
AFM is Turkey's nationwide largest cinema circuit with 183 screens around the country and the first and only entertainment company listed in İMKB since October 2004. Close to 38 percent of the company shares are offered publicly and 90 percent of these publicly offered shares are owned by foreign firms such as Morgan Stanley.
AFM is expected to continually expand, especially with this new Russian partner, and a burgeoning shopping center boom in Turkey. I find it interesting (and a coincidence?) that just my last post was regarding the AIG Blue Voyage Fund (AIG Rehires and Re-Enters Turkish Buyout Market with Blue Voyage Advisors). It can only be speculated that the rehires and Blue Voyage's resurgence back in Turkey may have been tipped off by the momentum of this deal.
AIG originally bought a minority holding into AFM for an estimated $7 million in 2000. Again, we can only speculate on their rate of return (if any) on this deal, since there are others involved in the exit.
Technorati Tags: AIG, Blue Voyage Fund, Private Equity, Investments, Deal Flow, Turkey, Buyout, Alfa Group, Venture Capital, exitsLabels: AIG, Alfa Group, Blue Voyage Fund, Buyout, exits, Investments, Private Equity, Turkey, Venture Capital
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| The Home Run Mentality in Venture Capital: the 80/5 Principle |
| 10 August 2007 |
As an American that misses baseball, and in the spirit of the boys of summer, I can't help but mention that Barry Bonds hit his 756th All-time Home Run on August 7th, breaking Hank Aaron's long-standing record of 755 set in 1974. Despite the controversy over steroid use, we must remember that Babe Ruth did it on hot dogs and beer, and it is an incredible moment in baseball history and for its fans. Way to go, Barry!
Within the reference of the home run, in my last post regarding Guy Fraser-Sampson's book, Private Equity as an Asset Class, I highlighted a very interesting statistic regarding the need for Venture Capitalists to "swing for the benches" and look for home runs when making investments. GFS had a very interesting chart in his book that observed this statistic from the famous data released from Horsley Bridge. Last week, a lot of traffic came from search criteria looking for this very data. Here are the basics that I have somewhat reproduced here:
The idea is that an investment in a potential "home run" at 5% of cost to the fund will produce 80% of total returns for the fund. This is not to say that it is easy, but VC's should be aggressive in this mentality to get this type of return. GFS reminds you to please not confuse this concept with buyout funds. The concept of having a home run mentality does not really work for the buyout space. However, we could see this principle go down in history (courtesy of Horsley Bridge) much like in comparison with the 80/20 rule. Its an impressive statistic and is very telling as to why the Netscapes, the Googles, and the YouTubes of the world are every VC's objective.
Now if only we can get something to come out of Turkey in comparison.
Technorati Tags: Private Equity as an Asset Class, Guy Fraser-Sampson, Venture Capital, Private Equity, Home Run, Horsley Bridge, investment, 80-05 Rule, Barry Bonds, VCLabels: exits, Home Run, Investments, statistics, Venture Capital
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| Is Turkey's IPO Window Open on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (IMKB)? Here are the 2007 IPOs! |
| 29 July 2007 |
2007 has been a very busy year, indeed. In the first half of the year, there were 8 IPO's (including Albaraka Turk Bank) totaling $2.820 billion. This breaks a record set in 2000, when 36 companies went public for close to the same amount. Here is a breakdown of the last 8 years of IPOs on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (IMKB). Remember, there was a crisis at the beginning of 2001.
| IMKB IPOs (2000-2007)
|
| YEAR |
NUMBER OF IPOs |
AMOUNT RAISED (USD) |
| 2000 |
36 |
$2,809 mln |
| 2001 |
1 |
$200,000 |
| 2002 |
4 |
$56.5 mln |
| 2003 |
2 |
$11.3 mln |
| 2004 |
12 |
$600 mln |
| 2005 |
9 |
$1,740 mln |
| 2006 |
15 |
$930 mln |
| 2007 (as of November) |
9 |
3,313 mln |
To follow, here is a list of the 2007 IPOs that have occured on the IMKB.
| IMKB IPOs (As of November 2007)
|
| DATE |
COMPANY IPO |
AMOUNT RAISED (USD) |
| Feb. 15-16 |
TAV Airports Holding |
$335 mln |
| Feb. 22-23 |
Sağlam REIT |
$5.59 mln |
| April 25-26-27 |
Oyak Yatırım Ortaklığı A.Ş. (Oyak Investment Fund) |
$8.31 mln |
| April 16-17-18 |
Merkez Securities INC. B Type Investment Trust |
$2.43 mln |
| May 2-3-4 |
Halkbank |
$1,837 mln |
| May 10-11 |
İş Investment Services |
$74.2 mln |
| June 14-15 |
Sinpaş REIT |
$384 mln |
| June 20-21-22 |
Albaraka Turk Bank |
$173 mln |
| Nov. 19-20 |
Tekfen Holding |
$493 mln |
This information has been sourced directly from the IMKB website. In addition, Elif Batu Yener from Referens/TDN posts some of this information and ends with an interesting quote from Attila Köksal, director general of Dundas Ünlü Securities, "The sway of foreigners in the market has changed the face of IPOs. Small volume companies are not of interest anymore. An IPO of $20-30 million is harder than one of $100 million. Because it does not attract foreigners."
My question is this: What does this mean for Private Equity or VC's in Turkey?
Occasionally I've referenced Josh Lerner's Venture Capital Cycle and this situation is no different. According to Black and Gilson (1998):"The health of the VC market depends on the existance of a vibrant public market that allows new firms to issue shares. Only with such a public market can VC's make a credible committment to entrepreneurs that they will ultimately relinquish control of the firms in which they invest."
From previous research, we also know that if there is an increase in the number of IPO's there should also follow an increase in investments as well as funds being raised. In other words (thus empirically proven) VCs and PE professionals assert that the "IPO window is open" and continue upon their work to take firms public (or rush firms to public offerings (grandstanding)), and/or raise more funds. We have seen an increase in fund raising. We could also say that in this positive environment of excess liquidity (raised funds and investments), more IPOs could also follow. This also brings up a good question: What does a bubble look like on the IMKB?
To add to that, we know that the elections are over, and the IMKB 100 has been breaking records and rocketing to heights never seen before. Two weeks ago, speculators were wondering if IMKB 100 could break 52K. Upon closing of the election, it had reached 55K, but as of this posting, the IMKB 100 now stands at 51,424.
In addition, large companies such as KVK, Digiturk (expected to raise $200-$300 mln in the 4th quarter) and Ülker Chocolate are in line to launch IPOs. We will just have to wait and see how these fall out. As to Mr. Köksal's comment, it is a shame for seed and venture investors that the companies being floated and the exit opportunities on the IMKB are a bit on the larger side and therefore somwhat reliant on buyout funds and foreign investors. By looking at the entities being floated, two are real estate investment trusts, a sector that has seen some rapid growth as of late. We also see an investment trust and financial services, not to mention the privatization of Halkbank by taking some shares public.
We must admit that the IMKB does not specialize in technology IPOs, nor is the IMKB's IPO success a resemblence to NASDAQs bubble of the late 90's and the inflated valuations that came with it. However, in its own respect, the IMKB has come of age and we can say that the IPO window is open, albeit for the more traditionalist (bricks and mortar) company. This post will be updated over the course of the year as more IPOs are floated.
GEEKY SIDE NOTE
Is it me, or does the IMKB's website (Turkish) just wreak of the Pre-Web 1.0 bubble and post-70's bureaucrats? Remember the days of using Prodigy or AOL and jumping off Yahoo! to see the IMKB website on your 14.4 dialup modem? That's what it feels like. Take a look at the NASDAQ or the London AIM for comparison. For a stock exchange website to not even have a ticker of symbols and quotes just seems...strange. No Flash, no CSS, not even javascript! Come on, IMKB - get with the 21st century - you are supposed to be in the business of floating and listing companies, marketing to potential IPOs and investors that you have a modern reliable trading infrastructure. Animated .GIFs just don't cut it anymore.
Technorati Tags: IMKB, IPOs, exits, fundraising, Deal Flow, Turkey, Dundas Ünlü Securities, Attila Köksal, IPO Window, Josh Lerner, Venture Capital Cycle, go public, REITLabels: exits, fundraising, IMKB, IPOs, REIT
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| Ebay Buys Stake In Gittigidiyor.com |
| 09 May 2007 |
That's right. This last week, Web 1.0 auction goliath Ebay just purchased a stake in the Turkish brand of Internet auctions - Gittigidiyor.com. There is no official word yet as to what percentage stake was acquired or for how much. My contacts at AccessTurkey's iLab Ventures, who had a funding round with Gittigidiyor are remaining tight-lipped about their exit.
According to the Ebay press release, Gittigidiyor.com has more than 400,000 listings and is one of the leading players on the Turkish online trading market. GittiGidiyor.com was founded in 2000 by Serkan Borancili, Burak Divanlioglu and Tolga Kabatas and is headquartered in Istanbul - employeeing more than 60 employees.
The press release also mentions that Turkey has over 17 million internet users and growing. This represents a quarter of the Turkish population. In addition, Turkey represents Ebay's 37th market entry to obtain a local presence.
Unfortunately, since Gittigidiyor is a privately-held company, we have no indication of financials. iLab Ventures acquired a stake in Gittigidiyor.com in February of 2006 and has other Turkish Internet companies in their portfolio. My question is whether this is the start of a Turkish Internet shakeout of other international acquisistions, since the IMKB has not proven to be a great exit ground or fund raising venue for Turkish Internet startups. So far, no one is grandstanding yet pertaining to this exit. We'll have to wait and see, but congratulations are definitely in order.
Technorati Tags: Gittigidiyor.com, AccessTurkey, iLab Ventures, Serkan Borancili, Deal Flow, Turkey, Burak Divanlioglu, Tolga Kabatas, EbayLabels: AccessTurkey, acquisitions, exits, iLab Ventures
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| Is Turkey Ready for Incubators? - An Answer |
| 08 May 2007 |
In my previous post, I posed the question, "Is Turkey ready for the concept of business incubation?" I'd like to point out the listed incubators on the Grandstanding Traction sidebar as current proof, but I'll summarize my feelings on the question as such:
- Discipline: First of all, the Turkish entrepreneur needs to have structured ideas in the form of business planning, or atleast understand how to convey ideas in both the technical and business sense. Finding entrepreneurs with this knowledge and level of written implementation may be hard to come by. Once an entrepreneur receives funding, they must understand that it is not a golden parachute. Pursuing cash flow, profits and an exit for investors must be in the cards. If an incubator were to throw $5000 at someone, this may actually not be taken seriously - in addition to the loss of 2-10% equity. It will be up to the investor to have a hands-on approach in coaching, motivation and dispute resolution - because the idea of equity financing is still a foreign concept. To some, this may even appear foolish. A larger loan from a bank might seem cheaper to an entrepreneur despite the loss of mentorship.
- Friends and Family: In the Turkish business world of family oligarchs, the funding of business aspirations through family bootstrapping is very prominent. According to a study by the OECD in 2000,
"99.8% of all enterprises were SMEs employing 76.7% of the workforce. Some estimates slate that the informal economy could also represent 50% of SME activity. Nonetheless, despite the employment, SMEs operate with comparatively little capital equipment, generate relatively low levels of value added, make only a small contribution to Turkish exports and receive only a marginal share of the funds mobilised by the banking sector." Thus, the fundamental weaknesses of the sector were stated as insufficient know-how and very low technology. So, as I've said before, the enterprise with the ability to look past the culture of family ownership toward 3rd party investors will perhaps enjoy greater chances of expansion. For an incubator to step in and invest so little compared to the value of a father's money, for example, might be a difficult hurdle to overcome for a Turkish entrepreneur. Again, it is the concept of parting with equity that may be difficult. However, needless to say, there are still a lot of opportunities out there for SME investment, provided the pipeline, whereas good due diligence is still important at the end of the day.
- The Turkish Angels/VC Network: The network of Turkish VC's is a small but tight group of wealthy individuals. In some cases, syndications with other VC's are simply a phone call away, while the ability of a VC to fund using their own money can be a suprisingly easy, alternative step for an entrepreneur. In the end, whether it is through a large fund, an incubator, or an angel investor, the ability of the entrepreneur to convey a differentiated idea that displaces competition while generating cash flow will definitely find funding. The crux of the problem is that the existance of private sector venture capital in Turkey has only emerged in the last 10-15 years, and even then, the top-end of private equity M&A is where most of competition for deals lies. Some colleagues have even mentioned the rush toward the high-end deals and the mid-cap, leaving a giant vacuum, and therefore minimal competition, of venture capital funding. Thus, for an incubator (or an accelerator), finding dealflow is crucial. Whether it is through contacts, universities, or business plan competitions, access to innovative Turks at the forefront of development is the deal maker or breaker. This must be considered about all else before renting that office, hiring that assistant and putting the name on the door.
- Minority Shareholder Rights: I've mentioned before the importance of corporate governance, and the nightmarish problems of the past. Between the judicial system and bureaucracy, shareholder rights are a pivotal concern amoung investors, both foreign and domestic. Entrepreneurs giving up equity need to realize that with VC funding comes a Term Sheet detailing the rights of the investor and what it entails. This may be a hard pill to swallow for some. Finding legal aid to put together such documents and making them valid may even give a few headaches, although manageable. An incubator, just like a VC, must be able to have all legal issues at arms length, for it might very well be somewhat of a sales pitch, not to mention a little hand-holding, guiding the entrepreneur towards understanding on these issues. But in the end, if the governmental systems show any sign of not working, all of this is for naught, and the investment climate may indeed get a little cold, and very quickly.
- The Exit: Again, with a good network of individuals, VC's, Angels, and pertinant industry contacts, an exit is not impossible, given the current climate. Series A, B or C may operate a little differently, with or without more syndication, but ideally, funding great ideas and individuals can still reap good rewards. But we must now look at whether the incubator is funded "privately" or through a larger parent company. Yes, we must also remember that certain large companies R&D departments may spin-off into their own incubators/think-tanks and gravitate toward their own interests. These do exist in Turkey (see sidebar). If this is the case, motivation toward an exit and grandstanding of such may be very minimal, if necessary at all. However, from a seperate privately-held incubator, the exit of incubation is no different from Silicon Valley to the Levent-Maslak corridor.
- The "Export of Brains": One issue has come up of late which I have discussed with a few colleagues as a viable option when funding entrepreneurs in Turkey - The export of entrepreneurs. This is not human trafficking! You may have heard of "Brain Drain", so perhaps we can call this the "Export of Brains". The idea is simple. Most Turkish VC's have existing contacts in Silicon Valley, the US, England, France, Germany, the Middle East, Israel and other countries. An incubator, given the right opportunity, with the right entrepreneur, technology, and timing, could very well incubate entrepreneurs outside of Turkey. As long as the Term Sheet is sound, investors and their "incubatees" could set up shop on Sand Hill Road, brush elbows with known industry contacts, find more funding, place them in prime location for market penetration, and even line them up for the next great IPO. Of course, for those people who believe Turkey will be the next Silicon Valley, don't let me stop you from staying put. In the end, the VC needs to find the best resources for its investments, and if that just happens to be overseas while still maintaining investment potential, more the better.
Nonetheless, with the current supply of deals and entrepreneurs in Turkey, and the current demand of deals from the quantity of VC's in the market, there may be an equilibrium (if not an oversupply of deals), with minimal competition. What happens if more VC's appear or don't appear on the scene? What happens if the government gets wise and finally educates and nurtures more entrepreneurs the right way? If this could happen, we could see a dramatic shift in Turkey's production output and innovation drive. Once more people start to understand the VC model, perhaps we could actually see more innovation coming out of Turkey, and not just cookie-cutter students studying subjects they never wanted. Until then, incubators and VC's alike have a tough road ahead, one that should demand attention.
Technorati Tags: Venture Capital, Turkiye, Risk Sermayesi, Melekler, Angel Investors, Turkey, entrepreneurship, Yatirim, innovation, incubatorsLabels: Angel Investors, deal flow, Entrepreneurship, exits, Incubators, Venture Capital
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