| Conflicting Reports on Turkey's Economic Slowdown in 2008: Ernst & Young, Iş Private Equity, Deloitte Touche Turkey |
| 28 July 2008 |
Ernst & Young Says Shopping Center Boom is Over!
This last May, Ernst&Young Turkey's managing director Osman Dinçbaş came out and said that Istanbul had reached the famous number of 100 shopping centers: a number that was predicted to meet Istanbul's demand. He even went on the say, "Taking those under construction into account, the number of malls will rise above 100. Can the city handle such a number? I believe a crisis in our country will stem from this."
Interesting perspective in this article, but having lived in this city, I'm sorry, but I kind of have to disagree. Very cautious. While there still might occur a crisis in Turkey, this will be a result of other issues. Decline of retail receipts will only occur after the fact. Maybe he should visit Carrefour on a Saturday afternoon? Compared to Europe, Turkey is still well below the number of square meters/population. I wrote about some of this last year: The Shopping Center Boom in Turkey
 Iş Private Equity Sees Continued Inflow and Strong Growth
Also printed in May of this year in the TDN: İş Private Equity forecasts growth
Private equity funds investing in Turkish firms will continue to grow and yield strong returns in 2008, Murat Özgen, chief executive officer of İş Private Equity "The current year will be another bullish year for private equity in Turkey and will follow the footsteps of 2006 and 2007," Özgen said. "We will see couple of mega funds entering the market and doing buy-outs.
Although he is somewhat bullish about the year, he still admits that granting bank loans and finding leverage might be difficult. I guess the question remains that eventhough private equity is cyclical and may have problems in the short-run, if there is a crisis on the horizon from global causes, how short will it be and when will it come? Can Turkey weather the storm?
Deloitte Touche Turkey Releases Private Equity Confidence Survey for 1st Half 2008
This just out in the TDN: Investor confidence declines, says Deloitte
According to the survey, "Some 75 percent of investors who participated in the survey expect the overall economic climate to continue its decline, and none foresee an improvement. Only 25 percent of private equity investors that participated in the survey believe the overall climate will remain unchanged, the report showed. That figure stood at 55 percent in Deloitte Turkey's previous survey six months ago."
Interestingly enough, according to the report, the overall view is that deal volumes will remain about the same, but that transaction multiples will be lower.
For a full read on this free report, visit:
Deloitte Turkey Report page, or
Download it here: (PDF)
Private Equity Confidence Survey (PECS): Survey for the 1st half of 2008
Deloitte puts out some pretty amazing reads, and this is no different. So, coupled with Turkey's political turmoils, and the global slowdown, Turkey will be hard pressed to get ahead this year.
Labels: Deloitte Touche, Ernst Young, Investment Reports, Is Private Equity, Shopping Centers
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| Deloitte Touche Turkiye Publishes Most Comprehensive Turkish Private Equity and Venture Capital Reports - 2007 |
| 11 November 2007 |
A few people were looking for the link to this report on my freind Kutlu's blog on Entrepreneurship. So, for anyone curious about testing the waters of the PE/VC space in Turkey, the Deloitte Touche Turkiye report on Private Equity in Turkey (PDF) is a must-read. With the Turkish Venture Capital Association being non-existant (the last analysis being written in 2004), and TUSIAD being focused in other areas, this report from Deloitte Corporate Finance is the most comprehensive analysis to date. Originally I found this report on the Turkish US Business Council website (with some other good reports), but here is the real home link at DT:
The report is structured around various economical periods in the last 20 years dealing with crises as well as telling of various fundraisings, deals and exits. It is a white paper of course, so the conclusion leaves the reader with information how to contact Deloitte Corporate Finace Turkey for their consulting and M&A requirements.
One cannot argue with the appendix. It is a timeline of all deals and a valuable resource. However, as mentioned in the report, some deals and their values are estimates only and should be taken with a grain of salt. In addition, there is a feeling that data collected comes only from personal experiences and local speculators with contacts in the deals themselves. I also believe that a few academics were involved on the consulting work for this report. Once again, I will reiterate that it is a shame that the TVCA has not produced anything that resembles this study.
Deloitte should be applauded for this work. Furthermore, while I provide the link for this report, I feel that I should also provide links to two other fine DT reports of noteworthy respect.
Enjoy!
 Technorati Tags: Venture Capital, Reporting, Deal Flow, Turkey, entrepreneurship, Private Equity, Deloitte ToucheLabels: Deloitte Touche, Investment Reports, Private Equity, private equity research, Technology, Venture Capital
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Publisher: Jon H. Black
