| Conflicting Reports on Turkey's Economic Slowdown in 2008: Ernst & Young, Iş Private Equity, Deloitte Touche Turkey |
| 28 July 2008 |
Ernst & Young Says Shopping Center Boom is Over!
This last May, Ernst&Young Turkey's managing director Osman Dinçbaş came out and said that Istanbul had reached the famous number of 100 shopping centers: a number that was predicted to meet Istanbul's demand. He even went on the say, "Taking those under construction into account, the number of malls will rise above 100. Can the city handle such a number? I believe a crisis in our country will stem from this."
Interesting perspective in this article, but having lived in this city, I'm sorry, but I kind of have to disagree. Very cautious. While there still might occur a crisis in Turkey, this will be a result of other issues. Decline of retail receipts will only occur after the fact. Maybe he should visit Carrefour on a Saturday afternoon? Compared to Europe, Turkey is still well below the number of square meters/population. I wrote about some of this last year: The Shopping Center Boom in Turkey
 Iş Private Equity Sees Continued Inflow and Strong Growth
Also printed in May of this year in the TDN: İş Private Equity forecasts growth
Private equity funds investing in Turkish firms will continue to grow and yield strong returns in 2008, Murat Özgen, chief executive officer of İş Private Equity "The current year will be another bullish year for private equity in Turkey and will follow the footsteps of 2006 and 2007," Özgen said. "We will see couple of mega funds entering the market and doing buy-outs.
Although he is somewhat bullish about the year, he still admits that granting bank loans and finding leverage might be difficult. I guess the question remains that eventhough private equity is cyclical and may have problems in the short-run, if there is a crisis on the horizon from global causes, how short will it be and when will it come? Can Turkey weather the storm?
Deloitte Touche Turkey Releases Private Equity Confidence Survey for 1st Half 2008
This just out in the TDN: Investor confidence declines, says Deloitte
According to the survey, "Some 75 percent of investors who participated in the survey expect the overall economic climate to continue its decline, and none foresee an improvement. Only 25 percent of private equity investors that participated in the survey believe the overall climate will remain unchanged, the report showed. That figure stood at 55 percent in Deloitte Turkey's previous survey six months ago."
Interestingly enough, according to the report, the overall view is that deal volumes will remain about the same, but that transaction multiples will be lower.
For a full read on this free report, visit:
Deloitte Turkey Report page, or
Download it here: (PDF)
Private Equity Confidence Survey (PECS): Survey for the 1st half of 2008
Deloitte puts out some pretty amazing reads, and this is no different. So, coupled with Turkey's political turmoils, and the global slowdown, Turkey will be hard pressed to get ahead this year.
Labels: Deloitte Touche, Ernst Young, Investment Reports, Is Private Equity, Shopping Centers
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| Carlyle Group Gets Its Feet Wet In Turkey: Aquires 50% of TVK Shipyard |
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Yes, I know it has been awhile, and I'm sorry for that. I'll try to feed the most recent stories that have occured this summer.
It seems Can Deldag of Carlyle Group in Turkey has come through with his words last spring. We knew that Carlyle had something in the works that would bear fruit this summer.
At right, you can see (L-R) Walid Musallam, head of Carlyle Middle East and North Africa, Can Deldag, director of Carlyle Turkey and Can Topsakal, TVK board member.
The most relevant stories are from suprisingly the Hurriyet's English division:
Carlyle group acquieres 50 pct of Turkey's TVK
and a somewhat comical TDN report:
Carlyle Group partners with TVK
When interviewed by Reuters, Can Deldag had this to say.
"We can easily complete 2-3 investment projects in the next 18 months. These could be companies operating in health, logistics, transport and non-food retail sectors," Deldag said.
"If we have the opportunity we could invest in other companies, including non-bank financial firms too," he said.
Carlyle, which has assets worth $82.7 billion globally, did not set up a separate fund for its investment in Turkey but has a global fund worth $35 billion to finance such investments.
"We do not plan to get out of our investments in Turkey in 1-2 years. We're looking at it with a longer perspective," Deldag said.
The company planned to prepare TVK for an initial public offering (IPO) by 2010, after capital injection and corporate governance have been put in place, he said, adding that it might invest in other ship building companies.
Deldag saw private equity investments in Turkey rising in the coming years. "Under the current circumstances, there's no reason why Turkey should not attract $3-5 billion private equity investments from 2009 annually," he said.
I know some of you had asked for any pertinant information on Carlyle and their activities in Turkey, but this is the best that can be put together at the moment.
Labels: Can Deldag, Carlyle Group, Shipbuilding, Shipping, TVK
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Publisher: Jon H. Black
